Spatial distribution and ecological niche modelling of lymphatic filariasis (Wuchereria bancrofti (Cobbold, 1877) in the context of climate and global change (Benin, West Africa)

Lymphatic filariasis is an endemic parasitic disease transmitted to humans by mosquitoes and constitutes a public health problem in Benin. In 2000, the prevalence of infection covered 50 municipalities across the country, with the highest prevalence observed in the southern and central departments of the country. In order to contribute to the sanitary protection of the human populations of Benin, we estimated the potential distribution of the lymphatic filariasis pathogen Wuchereria bancrofti under current and future climatic conditions. Five different algorithms were used for the modeling: Maxent, GLM, GAM, BRT, and RF. The best prediction performance was obtained by Maxent and BRT. This has led to the merging of the models of the two algorithms in order to achieve more reliable results. The current potential distribution of Wuchereria bancrofti with Maxent and BRT has shown high suitability in Benin countries. The current potential distribution of Wuchereria bancrofti is concentrated in the south, reflecting the current distribution of the species: lymphatic filariasis risk areas. Projections of Maxent and BRT in future conditions showed a potential distribution less than that of current conditions, although an emergence of new risk areas for lymphatic filariasis is likely to appear in the north of the country. The predictions of Maxent and BRT made it possible to anticipate the evolution of the risk areas of lymphatic filariasis in the decades to come.