02123nas a2200265 4500000000100000008004100001260002200042653002700064653002500091653002800116653003900144100000900183700001000192700001100202700001100213700001100224700001000235700000900245245008600254856014700340300000800487490000600495520133100501022002501832 2024 d bCompuscript, Ltd.10aVisceral leishmaniasis10aSpatial risk factors10aBoosted regression tree10aNeglected tropical diseases (NDTs)1 aWu X1 aWen X1 aSong S1 aZhao C1 aShao Z1 aLiu K1 aFu T00aGlobal Distribution and Prediction of Transmission-Risk of Visceral Leishmaniasis uhttps://www.scienceopen.com/hosted-document?-1.ILinkListener-header-action~bar-download~dropdown-pdf~link-link&doi=10.15212/ZOONOSES-2023-0059 a1-90 v43 a

Backgrounds: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease posing increasing public health concerns. Although efforts to eliminate VL are underway, its global risk distribution remains unclear, because of changes in transmission risk.

Methods: Worldwide province-level data on VL incidence were obtained from multiple sources. We analyzed the global evolution features of VL and estimated its ecological niches with boosted regression tree models. A risk map was generated to analyze regions with high VL risk.

Results: A total of 558 articles and 2,694 records from 310 provinces were included. The model indicated that precipitation in the warmest quarter and poor socio-demographic index were the most significant risk factors affecting VL distribution. The risk map indicated that Brazil, Iran, Ethiopia, and India were the regions with the highest probability of infection. We estimated that 5.3 billion people live in regions at risk of VL.

Conclusions: VL is undergoing geographic expansion. Our study increases understanding of VL’s global-risk distribution and how risk factors influencing the disease transmission. Our findings may aid in promoting disease control in future surveillance activities.

 a2737-7466, 2737-7474