01900nas a2200229   4500000000100000008004100001653002200042653002000064653001200084653001300096653002500109653001100134100001300145700001200158700001600170245013900186856006000325300001100385490000600396520125400402022001401656       2016                            d10aTransmission risk10aParasitic Worms10aMapping10ahelminth10aAscaris lumbricoides10aAfrica1 aGentry J1 aSturm B1 aPeterson TA00aPredictive mapping of transmission risk of a soil-transmitted helminth across East Africa: Findings from community prevalence surveys.  uhttp://www.jphdc.org/index.php/jphdc/article/view/53/34  a150-610 v23 a<p><strong>Background: </strong>Despite being identified as a major health concern and neglected tropical disease, Ascariasis, caused by <em>Ascaris lumbricoides</em>, a soil-transmitted helminth, ranks among the most common infections worldwide.</p>

<p><strong>Methods: </strong>Based on prevalence data from the community surveys across East Africa for 1975-2009, we used ecological niche modeling to summarize and predict the spatial distribution of <em>A. lumbricoides</em>’ transmission risk.</p>

<p><strong>Results: </strong>Projection of this model across East Africa identified 51.4% of the region as suitable for <em>A. lumbricoides </em>transmission, with least suitable areas in the Sahara and the Somali-Chalbi deserts. Partial area under the curve (AUC) tests based on independent data showed that our model predictions were better than random expectations in predicting infection risk of <em>A. lumbricoides</em>; the model successfully identified areas of high and low infection risk in Ethiopia and Eritrea.</p>

<p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Although preliminary, this occurrence-environment mapping approach provides predictions that can guide education and mitigation efforts in the broader East African region.</p>
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