02624nas a2200289   4500000000100000008004100001260001200042653002200054653001500076653001900091653002000110653002600130653003500156653001800191653001400209653002700223100002000250700001100270700001200281700001700293245008900310856006300399300000900462490000700471520184200478022001402320       2024                            d  c08/202410aBulinus truncatus10aOne Health10aClimate change10aschistosomiasis10asnail‐borne disease10aspecies distribution modelling10athermal niche10atrematode10avector‐borne disease1 avan der Deure T1 aMaes T1 aHuyse T1 aStensgaard A00aClimate change could fuel urinary schistosomiasis transmission in Africa and Europe.  uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.17434  a1-120 v303 a<p>The freshwater snail Bulinus truncatus is an important intermediate host for trematode parasites causing urogenital schistosomiasis, a tropical disease affecting over 150 million people. Despite its medical importance, uncertainty remains about its global distribution and the potential impacts of climate change on its future spread. Here, we investigate the distribution of B. truncatus, combining the outputs of correlative and mechanistic modelling methods to fully capitalize on both experimental and occurrence data of the species and to create a more reliable distribution forecast than ever constructed. We constructed ensemble correlative species distribution models using 273 occurrence points collected from different sources and a combination of climatic and (bio)physical environmental variables. Additionally, a mechanistic thermal suitability model was constructed, parameterized by recent life-history data obtained through extensive lab-based snail-temperature experiments and supplemented with an extensive literature review. Our findings reveal that the current suitable habitat for B. truncatus encompasses the Sahel region, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean segment of Africa, stretching from Southern Europe to Mozambique. Regions identified as suitable by both methods generally coincide with areas exhibiting high urogenital schistosomiasis prevalence. Model projections into the future suggest an overall net increase in suitable area of up to 17%. New suitable habitat is in Southern Europe, the Middle East, and large parts of Central Africa, while suitable habitat will be lost in the Sahel region. The change in snail habitat suitability may substantially increase the risk of urogenital schistosomiasis transmission in parts of Africa and Southern Europe while reducing it in the Sahel region.</p>  a1365-2486