Background: Despite being identified as a major health concern and neglected tropical disease, Ascariasis, caused by Ascaris lumbricoides, a soil-transmitted helminth, ranks among the most common infections worldwide.
Methods: Based on prevalence data from the community surveys across East Africa for 1975-2009, we used ecological niche modeling to summarize and predict the spatial distribution of A. lumbricoides’ transmission risk.
Results: Projection of this model across East Africa identified 51.4% of the region as suitable for A. lumbricoides transmission, with least suitable areas in the Sahara and the Somali-Chalbi deserts. Partial area under the curve (AUC) tests based on independent data showed that our model predictions were better than random expectations in predicting infection risk of A. lumbricoides; the model successfully identified areas of high and low infection risk in Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Conclusions: Although preliminary, this occurrence-environment mapping approach provides predictions that can guide education and mitigation efforts in the broader East African region.
}, year = {2016}, journal = {Journal of Public Health in Developing Countries}, volume = {2}, pages = {150-61}, issn = {2059-5409}, url = {http://www.jphdc.org/index.php/jphdc/article/view/53/34}, language = {eng}, }